Nikola Jokić vs. MVP Voter Fatigue
Plus, the Chicago Bears' Moves to Protect Caleb Williams, and the Yankees' Ace Shut Down for the Season
Welcome to Down The Line, a weekly sports newsletter on Substack that delivers in-depth analysis on football, basketball, and baseball. I’ll bring fresh stories to you all while providing captivating graphics where I see fit to support my points. Thanks for reading along!
This week’s stories are:
🏀 Nikola Jokić vs. MVP Voter Fatigue
🏈 Chicago Bears Protecting Caleb Williams
⚾ Yankees’ Ace out for the Year
🏀 Nikola Jokić vs. MVP Voter Fatigue
Last Friday, Denver Nuggets superstar Nikola Jokić recorded 31 points, 21 rebounds, and 22 assists in a tight win over the Phoenix Suns. With that statline, Jokić became the first player in NBA history to record a 30/20/20 game, but following the game, it seemed like just another regular night for the Serbian big man. The truth is, monster stat lines and team success aren’t new for Jokić, a three-time MVP and Finals MVP who is on pace to be just the third player in league history to average a triple-double in a season, joining guards Russell Westbrook and Oscar Robertson. This season, the Joker is averaging a career-highs in points (29) and assists (10.4) while bringing in 12.9 rebounds per game.
Yet with less than 20 games remaining in the regular season, Jokić finds himself as a sizable underdog to claim his fourth MVP award. According to all major sportsbooks, Oklahoma City star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has surged to the front of the MVP race, leading the league in scoring at 32.8 points per game while powering the Thunder to a blistering 54-12 record.
While SGA’s rise and the Thunder’s dominance deserve recognition, it’s impossible to ignore the historic season Jokić is having in the Mile High City — one that might be the best all-around campaign the league has ever seen. In addition to his triple-double average line, he’s shooting 58% from the field on nearly 20 attempts per game while nailing 43% of his threes. His 32.19 season PER is second all-time, trailing only himself from his 2021-22 MVP season.
Despite Jokić’s dominance, voter fatigue appears to be working against him. Already having three MVPs under his belt, some voters may be reluctant to award him a fourth, putting him above all-time legends like Larry Bird and Magic Johnson. Meanwhile, SGA is benefiting from the narrative of a rising star leading a team ahead of schedule. The Thunder’s league-best record strengthens his case, but history suggests that team success alone shouldn’t dictate MVP results; only six of the last ten winners have played for the NBA’s top seed. Denver is currently tied for second in the West and is a top title contender, making it difficult to penalize Jokić based on team performance alone.
Another factor working in SGA’s favor is his scoring approach. He plays a methodical, foul-friendly style, ranking second in the NBA in free throw attempts (8.9 per game) while leading the league in free throw makes. Jokić, by contrast, generates his numbers through sheer efficiency, ranking among the most dominant high-volume scorers in NBA history with no need to rely on fouls for production.
This situation draws many comparisons to the 2022-23 MVP race when Joel Embiid won the award over Jokić, primarily on the strength of his scoring title. That year, Jokić was more efficient, averaged more rebounds and assists, and led Denver to the top seed in a stacked Western Conference. The parallels are hard to ignore—once again, Jokić is producing across the board at a historic rate while another elite scorer with a gaudy point total benefits from voter intrigue. If the same logic from 2023 applied today, Jokić would be running away with his fourth MVP. Instead, he’s fighting an uphill battle against a voting media that seems determined to crown a new MVP.
🏈 Chicago Bears Protecting Caleb Williams
Armed with two top-10 picks and revamped skill positions, the Chicago Bears entered the 2024-25 season with high expectations, only to fall short of the expected turnaround. After starting the season 4-2, the Bears sputtered to a 5-12 finish, going 1-10 in their final 11 games while parting ways with head coach Matt Eberflus along the way. Other than Eberflus, nobody in the Bears organization faced more adversity than #1 pick Caleb Williams, who was labeled as the franchise savior before playing his first NFL snap. Williams showed flashes of his potential, but ultimately endured a brutal rookie season, where he was sacked a league-leading 68 times, third-most in NFL history. This offseason, Chicago wasted no time in addressing their biggest weaknesses, bringing in three new starting offensive linemen and hiring one of the brightest offensive minds in football in first time head coach Ben Johnson. The Chicago Bears are leaving no doubts: Caleb Williams is their franchise quarterback, and they’re determined to give him every opportunity to succeed.
Offensive Line
After the punishment Williams took from opposing defenses last season, the Bears made bolstering their offensive line a top priority this offseason. Chicago was one of the first teams to make a major move, trading for former Rams’ guard Jonah Jackson, a versatile interior lineman who immediately boosts the Bears’ pass protection. The team then swung a trade with the Chiefs for guard Joe Thuney, debatably the best guard in the NFL and a four-time All-Pro and Super Bowl Champion with elite durability and technical skill. The Bears rounded out their line transformation by signing free agent center Drew Dalman, the top available player at his position this offseason. There is still room to upgrade at either tackle position, which the team can address through free agency or with the #10 pick in the upcoming draft. It’s refreshing to see Chicago—long considered a dysfunctional franchise when developing quarterbacks—take a page from past teams that invested heavily in protecting their young quarterbacks.
We don’t have to go too far back to find historical precedence (and a cautionary tale) for the Bears’ line overhaul. Just in 2022, the Bengals made a similar move to support Joe Burrow after he was sacked a league-high 51 times in 2021. Following a heartbreaking loss to the Rams in Super Bowl LVI, the Bengals did a full makeover on their offensive line, bringing in tackle La’el Collins, guard Alex Cappa, and center Ted Karras, all of whom were significant upgrades on paper. The initial results were promising, as Burrow’s sack total dropped by 10, and the Bengals finished atop the AFC North with 12 wins. However, injuries and inconsistent play prevented this unit from achieving the long-term success the team had hoped, as the Bengals have yet to return to the Super Bowl and have moved on from Collins and Cappa the last couple seasons.
This case study doesn’t mean that the Bears will fail in similar fashion, and the front office should be applauded for supporting their quarterback before it’s too late. Recently, we’ve seen a number of top draft picks struggle due to a lack of support from their team and front office. Consider Sam Darnold’s time with the New York Jets, where he was sacked 98 times, and dealt with constant turnover with both coaches and teammates. Or Baker Mayfield’s struggles as a Cleveland Brown, leading to him getting shipped off to Carolina. While neither of these quarterbacks were completely exempt from blame for their subpar play, they showed what they are capable of in stable situations—Darnold and Mayfield have earned themselves $100M+ contracts with the Seahawks and Buccaneers, respectively, over the last two seasons. Ironically, the Bears can look to Carolina for hope. Just a year after Bryce Young’s disastrous rookie campaign led to his premature labeling of a bust, the Panthers’ commitment to investing in the offensive line and improving the talent around him helped showcase the potential that made him the #1 pick. The Bears will hope to make a bigger leap next season by giving Williams both protection and playmakers.
Head Coach
The Bears retooled their skill positions before last season, bringing in Keenan Allen and D'Andre Swift to pair with D.J. Moore and first round pick Rome Odunze. Now with improved protection on the offensive front, the Bears have the foundation for a turnaround season. But the Bears have acknowledged it’s equally important to put Williams in the right scheme as it is giving him the tools to thrive. That’s where Ben Johnson comes in.
The Bears’ new head coach spent the previous six seasons with the NFC North rival Detroit Lions, where he was the architect of Detroit’s elite offense as offensive coordinator the last three years. Between 2022 and 2024, the Lions led the league in points per game (ppg), culminating in an NFL-leading 33.1 ppg last season, a testament to Johnson’s creativity and ability to adapt his scheme depending on his opponent. Considering how dynamic the Lions offense was with a pocket passer like Goff under center, it’s exciting to imagine the ways Johnson will unlock Williams’ athleticism through the game script.
Until the season kicks off in early September, all we can do is speculate. However, the Bears deserve credit for doing what struggling teams often fail to do—build around their young quarterback quickly rather than leaving him to carry the offense alone. Chicago has clearly improved on paper, and the attention now shifts to William to deliver as the superstar he was projected to be. If all goes to plan, the Bears’ franchise will see their first 4,000+ yard passer in franchise history lead them to football relevance again.
⚾Yankees’ Ace out for the Season
After losing out on the Juan Soto sweepstakes in December, the New York Yankees’ World Series hopes took another major hit this past week. On Monday, the team announced that right-handed ace Gerrit Cole will miss the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, with the start of 2026 in jeopardy as well. Cole experienced pain in his elbow after a start earlier this month, and further tests revealed the need for the season-ending operation. This is the second consecutive Spring Training where the Yankees’ ace has sustained a significant injury; his 2024 season debut was delayed until June as he dealt with elbow inflammation.
There is never a good time to lose your ace, but the timing of this injury stings more with their season starting in a little over a week. Despite failing to land Soto, the reigning AL Champions salvaged their offseason with several free agent splashes highlighted by starting pitcher Max Fried, outfielder Cody Bellinger, and first baseman Paul Goldschmidt. While offense is never a question with Judge in the lineup, the Yankees hoped that pairing Fried with Cole would give them the most formidable pitching duo in baseball, and solidify an inconsistent rotation from last season.
New York’s 2024 pitching wasn’t disastrous, but it was far from inspiring. Their numbers hovered around league averages, and often benefited from an all-time offense led by Soto and AL MVP Aaron Judge. With Cole sitting out the first two months of the season, the pitching staff never reached its full potential. Looking ahead to 2025, the Yankees will lean on Fried, their new $218M man, to anchor this rotation following his All-Star campaign in 2024. The former Brave has shown durability and masterful control throughout his eight years in the MLB. New York will also hope for another resurgent year from lefty Carlos Rodon, who was a bright spot on this Yankees staff last year. After an injury-plagued 2023, Rodon proved he still has gas in the tank in 2024, leading the Yankees in wins, innings pitched, and strikeouts last season. And reigning AL ROY Luis Gil will look to improve on a strong debut season where he displayed plenty of power, but also threw an MLB-leading 77 walks.
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Jokic is clearly MVP but Shai gonna win it cuz of “aura” (Tatum is my MVP tho 🤫)